What the Numbers Say- Something or Nuthin'?

this is intriguing stuff here. Is it truly a mental thing here? Is it because our lineup has been so inconsistent at home v road games? I guess I should take the time to research what the overall turnover is from road v home, for the season, and factoring in injuries, competitions, suspensions, etc.

But you’re exactly right that we must get 3 points in Canada this weekend. We should’ve had them except of course for Matt Reis’ deal-with-the-devil game, but again we find ourselves in a situation where the full road points are ripe for the taking: when we faced the Revs they were on a slide but were able to get a point against us and here is Vancouver which is looking like the best pub-league team in North America. We’re riding high and they’re not, we have our most complete roster all season long so quite frankly this is just as critical as the RSL game we just won: if we can’t get a road win against Vancouver then we’re f****d, plain and simple. Sure we may still make the playoffs but we’d be first-game fodder. We’re tantalizingly close…

May 7, 2-1 to Toronto
May 25, 1-0 to LAG
June 6, 2-0 to San Jose
July 23, 3-0 to las chivitas

So, in the losses, that’s a total scoreline of 8-1, with three bunched into a one-month span. Overall, the road performances have indeed been better since that time, as evidenced by how we played at New England. Now, the Revs certainly aren’t winning many games at all this season, but really, if it weren’t for Matt Reis, we’d be talking about a three-game winning streak and slightly better numbers than what you posted above. The point being that in the things we can control, things are getting better.

Another point, of course, just looking at these results is, “Stay out of California.”

So, here’s a statistical sampling of life on the road (again):

Total – 12 road games thus far

ROAD DRAWS
In the 8 road games we drew this year, we allowed 7 goals
In those same games we scored 7

Players in a defensive role for = or >50% of those games:
Hunter Freeman, Corey Ashe, Bobby Boswell, Andre Hainault

Midfielders who played = or >50% of those games:
Lovel Palmer, Geoff Cameron, Brad Davis and Danny Cruz

Forwards who played (in one combination or another) = or >50% of those games:
Will Bruin, Brian Ching, Cam Weaver

ROAD LOSSES
In the 4 road games we lost this year, we allowed 8 goals
In those same games we scored 1

Players in a defensive role for = or >50% of those games:
Hunter Freeman, Bobby Boswell, Andre Hainault, Corey Ashe

Midfielders who played = or >50% of those games:
Lovel Palmer, Geoff Cameron, Brad Davis Colin Clark, Danny Cruz

Forwards who played (in one combination or another) = or >50% of those games:
Will Bruin, Cam Weaver, Koke

Martek pointed out the road loss stats earlier and its a pretty grim picture: we can’t defend and we can’t score. I know I know, groundbreaking research here but that’s why I wanted to take a look at the line-ups to see if we could glean anything further. Its always tenuous to make some assumptions based on this but we can at least see that pairing Freeman, Boz and Hainault gives shaky results (regardless of home or road), and that including Palmer isn’t helping either. Also, pairing Bruin & Weaver wasn’t terribly effective on the road either (though it could be because similar skill-sets, rookie on the road, shaky midfield).

I’m not saying any of this is hard-and-fast or that speculation based on this is correct, I’m just saying its interesting to look

It seems as though the players really do respond to the fans. I was at the Portland game-we won. Excellent all around game. Then we go to New England and come out with no energy. If the players need the fans to pump themselves up then one of two things need to happen- We all need to break out our frequent flier miles or they need to get the mental half of their pre-game warmup into shape. I don’t want another Chivas USA nightmare on the road.

…Yes, it is.

I think we should take a dynamic, or at least relativistic, look at the road losses. The thing about those four is that three of them came early in the season. If not for a total meltdown against Chivas, then the losses would all be well in the past, and as the intervening time grows larger, then their importance or relation to present form recedes.

I think, depending on what happens this weekend, that it might just be possible to rate the Chivas game as something of an outlier in relation to present form. Just how much of an outlier can be seen in this look over time at the eight road draws:

March 25, 1-1 Sounders
April 2, 1-1 NYRB
April 23, 1-1 Chi
May 14, 0-0 RSL
June 25, 2-2 DCU
July 23, 0-0 COLO
Aug 6, 1-1 PHI
Aug 17, 1-1 NER

What I am seeing here is a certain consistency. Only in the DC game did either team score more than 1. And in all of the others, the score was quite low.

To drive the point further home, in the five road games since the third loss, the team has drawn four times and lost once. So not only is the fact of the Chivas game something of an outlier, the heavily weighted score is even more of one.

To me, these are the indicators of progress. Are they signs of a championship side? Let’s not kid ourselves. But again, the point of this season is to get better and scrub the stain of 2010 from the team. And in that regard, it’s clear that we are well on our way.

So in this sense, we are holding the line, or at the very least not going in reverse. Now it’s time to put the tanks in gear and, as Old Blood and Guts used to say: “Advance constantly” and “Shoot them in the belly.”

So, thanks to Spoilsport Griggs, we have to relook at this curve here. April was indeed an undefeated time (except for the US Open Cup crash out, which is probably a blessing in disguise), as Dynamo went into May with a 3-0-2 mark.

Ahhh, what heady times those were. The Podcast Orange was on, Straight Red Card was showcasing Dynamo. The days were bright, the weather mild, the women pretty.

And then May.

From May 4-June 18, Dynamo went on a 1-4-4 run, seven points out of a possible 27. And in many ways, the team has been struggling to overcome the effects of that run of turdosity ever since. It was the era of Koke.

In the entire rest of the season, Dynamo have gone 7-3-7, or 28 points out of a potential 51. It is in this second group that we find the obvious problem of the lack of road wins, as in this group, Dynamo have gone 0-1-6 on the road and 7-2-1 at home. Eliminate April, and those numbers turn into 0-1-4 on the road and 4-2-1 at home.

Let’s just say that April and the Era of Koke cancel each other out, and that leaves us those last two sets of numbers. This further underlines the absolute need to win on the road, not just draw, if Dynamo want to either (a) make the playoffs and/or (b) go into the playoffs with any sort of momentum.

So Griggs, in all seriousness, thanks for pointing out the April thing, because this is a much more complete picture.

And on a sider, two games stand out as exceptions in both the Era of Koke and the current run of better form, and both of them were against las chivitas.

The lone win in the sea of turdosity, was a hard-fought, though to be truthful against the run of play, victory over the Amerigoats here at Robertson in June. And further, the lone loss was the absolute blowout on the road at the HDC in July.

So what do we learn from this? That in all of these sorts of trends, deviations occur and mean nothing as long as they are only deviations. Also, losing to Chivas is indeed deviant.