It's going to take not only a great effort from the Houston Dynamo tonight to win their third MLS Cup, it's going to take Houston getting some breaks as well. Fortunately, that kind of thing happens all the time in soccer matches so while the Los Angeles Galaxy are massive favorites on paper (and rightfully so), we all know that in a one off playoff game, anything can happen.

So how do the Dynamo win tonight?

First off Houston must at the very least create a "draw" in the midfield and force the Galaxy out of the free flowing passing style they will want to play. The Galaxy play a more fluid brand of soccer than the Dynamo, so allowing them to run through the midfield stringing passes together will lead to a long night that sees LA peppering the defense and Tally Hall. 

So to break up that fluidity, the Dynamo will need to play a physical match, which fortunately is something they are quite good at. The more stop and start this match is, the more clunky it looks, the better it is for the Dynamo. Houston is a bigger team than the Galaxy so turning this match in to a physical affair will be key. The likes of David Beckham and Juninho have tempers and enough physical play could force them in to a momentary lapse of reason that might change the game. Adam Moffat will be right in the middle of this and his play could be key in helping to break up the Galaxy's flow and getting them frustrated.

Up front, Brian Ching and Calen Carr must be on their game. Ching will need to take advantage of every touch of the ball, holding things up as much as possible and giving his teammates a chance to work in the offensive third. Meanwhile, Carr will need to run at the Galaxy defense and try to force them to adjust to him, creating openings for Danny Cruz, Luiz Camargo and Corey Ashe to work in.

At the back, it's much simpler. Stay organized, stay focused and absorb the inevitable moments where the Galaxy attackers will challenge them. They are going to be pressured, they are going to tested but this group has been strong down the stretch and is perfect capable of dealing with the Galaxy attack. Jermaine Taylor has shown to be more than capable of handling the left back position that has been vacated by Ashe who must move forward to fill in for the injured Brad Davis.

Even if all that goes perfectly, the Dynamo will still need some luck. How referee Ricardo Salazar will be a big part of how this match plays out. If he lets the game go and limits the set piece opportunities for Houston, it will take away what could be Houston's best scoring chances. 

So can the Dynamo win? Absolutely. Is it likely? Well, it depends if you're thinking with your head or your heart. My head tells me the Galaxy will find a way to get their goals and despite a herculean effort from the Dynamo, it simply won't be enough. My heart tells me Dominic Kinnear will have a plan that his team will execute and they'll walk all over AEG's best laid plans to crowd their precious Galaxy on their home field.

We will find out tonight.

We are only four days from the culmination of the 2011 season and I don't know about all of you, but I'm ready. Alas, we must be patient and in an attempt to give you something to focus on ahead of the game, I figured it would be good to offer up my analysis of the two teams and who I see having the advantage, at least on paper.

Goalkeeper

Tally Hall and Josh Saunders have been pretty much lights out down the stretch for their respective clubs. In 270 minutes of playoff soccer, Hall has allowed one goal and Saunders has allowed two. It's hard to get much better than that. Ever since taking over for Donovan Ricketts back in late June, Saunders has cemented himself as the Galaxy's #1 keeper, so much so that Ricketts is considered one of the most likely players to be traded in the off season. In 19 matches, Saunders has a 0.93 GAA and 55 saves, many of which that have been of the highlight reel variety. Meanwhile, Tally Hall has played every minute of every game for the Dynamo in his first season as the starting goalkeeper. There's a reason we call him The Wall and he's more than earned that nickname in the playoffs with two clean sheets. 

Advantage: Dynamo - Hall has been nearly perfect of late and while Saunders has been impressive, he still has moments that can make your heart skip a beat.

Defense

If you try to compare these two defenses purely on statistics and scorelines, you'd probably give the outright advantage to the Galaxy, but you can't do that. The Houston back line was a virtual science experiment most of the season as Kinnear tried numerous combination in an attempt to find the best four players. It wasn't until September when Geoff Cameron was moved back to the defense from his CAM spot that things finally settled. From that point forward, the Dynamo defense was efficient and organized, performing in the way Houston fans have come to expect from a Kinnear led team. Andre Hainault has been an anchor all season and Bobby Boswell has rediscovered his form after being paired again with Cameron. As for the Galaxy, they are led by MLS Defender of the Year Omar Gonzalez, the often under-rated A.J. DeLaGarza and the dependable Sean Franklin and Todd Dunivant. Their stats have been great all season, and they are easily the best defense in the league. LA only allowed 28 goals all season, the next best goals against total was 36 by the Union and Real Salt Lake.

Advantage: Galaxy - Kinnear is forced to change his back line with the injury to Brad Davis. Corey Ashe who has become to regular starter at left back will likely push forward and be replaced by Jermaine Taylor, fortunately he's pretty damn good. Still, it's an adjustment that tips the scales for me.

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In roughly six and a half hours, the Dynamo will take the field at LIVESTRONG Sporting Park against Sporting Kansas City with a birth in the 2011 MLS Cup Final on the line. I doubt you can find many who believed the Dynamo would be in this position as late as August, but here they are and their run of form at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs clearly shows they deserve to be here. The best part, so does Sporting KC.

Sure that makes today's match even harder considering LSP is one of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in, but that old saying about wanting to be the best, you have to beat the best rings true. No matter what the result Sunday afternoon, fans can be proud of their team and excited about the future.

So how does Houston win today? Play a near perfect game, it's really that simple. The defense has been stellar for most of the past couple months, but the goals they've allowed have often been a combination of great play by their opponents and positional mistakes. Given how well both teams are playing, it's those kind of mistakes that could determine who wins today. Sporting KC has been known to make the same kind of mistakes at the back as well this season, so taking advantage of any opportunities is key as well.

Secondly, the Dynamo need to neutralize the dynamic SKC attack by controlling the game in the midfield. Houston can't afford to let SKC control the flow of play and pound away at the defense for 90 minutes. The play of Moffat, Davis, Camargo and whomever plays on the left will make a huge difference in whether the Dynamo are playing in LA in two weeks.

It's also probably not a bad thing that the Dynamo got run out of the building when they visited LSP back in September. Nothing helps give you an extra push in a big game that the memory of being embarrassed. The Dynamo will need to draw on all that motivation today to survive the Blue Hell and earn a chance to play for their third MLS Cup. It's possible, but it's going to be tough.

It's All Chalk In The Eastern Conference Final [SB Nation Soccer]

Dynamo hope to erase bitter memories in K.C. [Houston Chronicle]

Dynamo quietly confident heading to KC [MLS Soccer]

Costly says Dynamo have conviction [MLS Soccer]

Houston have enough to stop Kansas City [Fox Soccer]

Injury Update: Omar Bravo Could Play in Eastern Conference Championship [Yahoo Sports]

There are plenty of story lines surrounding tonight's match between the Dynamo and the Philadelphia Union. Jeff Gordon will be an honorary captain, this will be the final Dynamo match ever played at Robertson Stadium, but in the end though, the only thing that really matters is holding off a comeback from a Union team that is perfectly capable of turning this series around. Fortunately the Dynamo know this and they will be prepared to deal with the inevitable onslaught on goal from the Union. 

The keys to holding on to an aggregate goal lead in a second leg are fairly simple. Weather the opening 15 minutes, which typically see the trailing side attempt to grab momentum as early as possible, and score the first goal yourself. It's of course more complicated than that, but broken down to the lower common elements, that's what you want to do. 

With the Dynamo leading 2-1, the importance of the first goal is magnified. If Houston can take a 3-1 lead it will put further pressure of the Union to push forward and open up more space in the back for the Dynamo to attack. If the Union score first and make the match 2-2, all bets are off and it'll be up the Dynamo to shake off the goal and get right back in the fight.

The advantage Houston has, other than playing at home, is they know exactly what the Union need to do. They have to score, which means they can't sit back and try to absorb pressure. The Dynamo can be both mentally prepared for this and be on the lookout for ways to exploit the Union's pressure. Best case scenario, the Dynamo are able to control possession for a majority of the match and limit long stretches where they are pinned back in their own end, scrambling and defending for their lives.

It's guaranteed to be a nerve racking 90 minutes of soccer for fans of both teams.

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"The line must be drawn here! This far and no farther!"

There are game previews all around, especially one here and another hhere, but really, there's not much to say anymore, now is there?

I really feel that if Houston Dynamo do not get at least four points from these final two games, then we are cooked, and we deserve to be. Six points and we go into the playoffs with our heads held high, no matter what happens. So it's time to, in the words of Clint, "Get plum mad-dog mean." So for your edification, here are a few things to remember, to fire you up for more in depth analysis. Right this second, I have no in depth analysis in me. I have only emotion and tension and hope. 

So come on Houston Dynamo, what are you made of? Show us.

And if that's not enough for you, turn to US. Senator John Blutarski.

Or to the Hero of Canton himself:

And if you've not heard enough, and at the risk of being repetitive, here you go. Now go get them boys. Go. Get. Those. Three. Points.

The Dynamo make their first trip to JELD-WEN Field to take on former Houston assistant coach John Spencer and the expansion Portland Timbers, who remain in playoff contention. The Dynamo won the teams' first meeting on August 14 by a 2-1 score, including a long-range goal from former Timber Adam Moffat. The Timbers' lineup typically includes former Dynamo players Mike Chabala and Lovel Palmer.

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This weekend's penultimate Houston Dynamo home match at Robertson Stadium is a fairly simple affair. Houston must control the suddenly dangerous Dominic Oduro and the rest of the improving Chicago Fire or their playoff hopes will take a serious realism torpedo.

DC United's 3-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union last night helped but they still have games in hand on the Dynamo so with only three matches, a total of nine possible points, on the table, it's get points or get golfing for Houston. Easy right?

Can the Dynamo win? Absolutely, their home form of late has been good and the team should have good confidence coming off their first away victory in Frisco last weekend. The key tomorrow will be shutting down a Chicago team that's shown the propensity to score goals of late (nine goals in three matches) and haven't lost in three matches.

More importantly, the Dynamo must deal with their speed. Houston was able to deal with FC Dallas' speed through a combination of determination and dumb luck, so it stands to reason they'll need much of the same tomorrow afternoon at Robertson. Let's be honest here, the last thing any Dynamo fans want to see is Oduro torching Houston for a couple goals, but that is a real possibility.

In case you are wondering, trading Oduro was the right decision for the Dynamo and it will always be the right decision. Whatever success he's had since leaving certainly speaks to the talent many saw in him, but for whatever reason that success was not going to be found in Houston. He needed the change of scenery, a new system, a different voice telling him what he should be doing. Just accept that point and it makes is double-digit goal total this season a good deal lest frustrating.

No matter what happens, nothing concrete will be determined after 90 minutes against the Fire. What we will know is how difficult the road to the playoffs is for the Dynamo and how much help they will need from outside sources.

By the way, I spent at least ten minutes trying to jam as many puns in to the headline as I could. You're welcome.

My Predicted Lineup:

Hall

Ashe - Boswell - Cameron - Hainault

Moffat

Cruz - Camargo - Davis

Carr - Ching

Dynamo Notes:

• Houston leads the all-time series between the teams 6-3-2 and is 6-1-1 in their last eight meetings. The last three matchups at Robertson Stadium have produced one-goal Houston victories by progressively increasing scorelines (2-1 in 2008, 3-2 in 2009, 4-3 in 2010).
• The Dynamo's 87th-minute goal last Saturday was the 10th time this season Houston has scored in the final 11 minutes to win or tie a game, including six of the last nine. The goal was Geoff Cameron's fifth of the season, tying his career high in all competitions set in 2009 and tying him for the team lead.
• Midfielder Brad Davis is one of the leading candidates for Major League Soccer's MVP award, thanks in-part to his 14 assists, tied for the league lead. In addition to the assists, however, Davis leads the league by a wide margin in chances created, according to MLS stats partner Opta. While starting all 31 games, Davis has created 104 chances, 41 more than second-place Mauro Rosales of Seattle. Davis' deadly set-piece delivery is part of the equation, as 55 of the 104 chances have come from free kicks, but Davis still leads the league with 49 chances created from open play. He has been involved in six of the Dynamo's 10 late tying or winning goals this year.
• Brazilian midfielder Luiz Camargo has started the last three MLS games for the Dynamo, and the team has posted a 2-0-1 record in those contests. The insertion of Camargo has allowed Geoff Cameron to shift to center back and has, for the last two games, pushed Andre Hainault to right back. The Dynamo have allowed just one goal from open play in three games with Camargo in midfield.
• Goalkeeper Tally Hall made four saves in the win against Dallas to post his first shutout since July 9 and his fifth of the season. Hall is tied for fourth in MLS with 10 wins on the season. In all competitions, Hall has posted 10 career shutouts and is likely to make his 50th start for the Dynamo on Saturday.
• Houston has scored first in 11 out of 31 games on the season; the Dynamo are 7-1-3 when notching the first goal and 3-8-7 when the opponent scores first; there have been two 0-0 ties. Houston's 10 results when allowing the first goal are the most in MLS; the Dynamo's winning percentage when allowing the first goal (.361) ranks third.

Go team, go!

And Dom's take: